7-Steps-Problem‐Solving-Framework
Step-1: Define The Problem
Rushing to find a solution reduces chances of finding good solution
Identify the knowns, unknowns and challenges
Identify if good-enough outcome works or do we want perfect solution
List any known assumptions
List verifiable facts
Understand the Problem
Understand the context
Identify the stakeholders
Identify the constraints
Identify the non-negotiables
Identify the success criteria
Identify the desired accuracy level [perfect response or good-enough response]
Eval against the smarter framework
Is problem specific
is it measurable
is it actionable
is it relevant
is it timebound
is it ethical review
is there reputational risks
is there material risks
is there discriminational risks
is there exploitational risks
Step-2: Disaggregate/Breakdown the Problem
Step-1: Build Your Logical Tree
Pinpoint, levers, factors, and components associated with problems
Trunk = Problem
Big branches = factors
Small Branches = levers
Twigs = components
List everything that contributes to problem
Use Stickies
Brainstorm with Team
Logical trees can be worked either of following two ways:
Deductively aka from problem to cause
Inductively aka from cause to problem
Details evolve our logical tree into hypothesis tree
Logical trees should be mutually exclusive aka there should be minimal to no overlap and collectively exhaustive aka include all ways to look at the problem
Step-2: Evolve Logical Tree into Hypothesis Tree
This is one of the many probable cause that needs to be validated
Specific hypothesis are better for testing
Easy to test hypothesis allows us to look at problem from different perspective
Step-3: Use Cleaving Frames
Use different perspective to evaluate the how long it will take to solve the problem
work/play frame suggests to consider how much effort and for how long we have to apply at/towards something to meet our end goal
supply/demand frame suggests to consider how much of anything is needed to meet the demand of that item
near/long frame suggests to consider short and long term implications of our decisions before making any decisions
cost/benefit frame suggests to consider how much something is costing at hourly or financial basis and if the benefit yielded is signifcantly higher than that
Step-3: Prioritization of Problem
Find your critical path
Direct effort with aim to apply least effort for max returns
Collaborate and avoid bias
Neglecting prioritization could lead to delusion of focus
Optimize your critical path
Tackle things that have high impact and your ability to influence the actions necessary for outcomes is high
Identify and eliminate things that offer little help toward solution
Identify and eliminate things that are too hard to tackle
80% of outcomes are result of 20% of effort or 20% causes are reasons for 80% of problems
Identify
Who does what
When it is due
Why it is needed
What does end-product look like
Step-4: Work Planning
For Multi Month Projects
Use Chunky Work Plan
Prepare for 2 weeks worth of work ahead
Regroup
Analyse
Ask, are task for the week complete,
if yes: move forward
if no: start steps 1-3
For One Day Answers
We do all of the things state under "Multi Month Projects Work Plan" in one day by doing followin
Identify Situation
Record Observations
Understand and Share Implications
Note: Combining chunky work plan and gantt chart leads to balanced work plan
Use detailed work planning with due dates for individual tasks
Ensure delivery of individual work products is well within total allocated time for whole project
Leverage those with expertise you lack
Adopt a Proactive outlook
Diversity of perspective will enrich problem solving
Even with hammer in hand, not everything is a nail
Speak last to avoid sunflower effect, aka, its when your followers follow your decision because their view might contradict yours
Biases in Decision Making
Availability Bias suggests:
We rely on what technique or method worked most recently
ignore the unique characteristics of problem [how new problem differs from last similar encounter]
Did we take into account everyone's perspective to consider effect before making a decision
Anchoring Bias suggests:
fixating on stats over present day situations
Confirmation Bias suggests:
We favor the information that supports our hypothesis against the one that is contrary to our hypothesis
Loss-aversion Bias suggests:
Prefer avoiding loss over acquiring gains even when the possibility of postitive and negative outcomes are equivalent
Over-optimism Bias suggests
overly positive outlook
overestimate likelihood of positive outcomes
unrealistic expectations
Democratic Bias
It occurs when people avoid sharing their opinion to avoid dominance bias
Step-5: Analysis of Problem
Get a 30,000 foot view of the problem
Heuristics System suggests
Solution with least assumptions tends to be correct one
Evaluate if 80% of problem stems from 20% of causes
Determine Breakeven point
to calculate sales volume needed to cover fix costs and variable costs per unit sold
Evaluate against rule of 72 for financial scenarios to determine no years required to double the invested money
72/(Annual growth rate of invested money)
Pitfalls of Heuristics
Substitution Heuristics - we answer question other than what was asked
Availability Heuristics - we overestimate probability of occurrence of something because it is easy to remember
Summary of Statistics suggests
Calculate average, median and mode to measure central tendency and data distribution
Analyze Outliers
To determine best and worst performers
To reveal error in data sampling
To reveal optimal and sub-optimal practices
Questions Based Method suggests:
Systematically ask why, 5 times consecutively
To help drill down root cause of problem
To help shift focus to most critical aspects
Driver of the Situation suggests:
Determine the data quality
Ensure data is reliable
For complex data, use multi-variance
Use A/B Testing to generate data when data is lacking
Bayesian is used to make inference from imperfect data
Prediction
Account change in behavior of actor
Use ML or scenario modelling
Behavior prediction of rival is through game theory
Step-6: Synthesis of Problem-Solution Narrative
Convert Insights to story
Work in teams
Discuss with teams to find relevant roles and responsibilities
Work on central idea/thesis/governing thought
Define solution in one sentence
Define recommendation to achieve the solution
Use either top-down [Hypothesis to Solution] or bottom-up [Solution to Hypothesis]
Cycle between above two approaches as needed
Keep in mind
Constantly review problem statement and understanding while considering newly acquired information
Remember to remove any irrelevant facts and information
Consider only verified facts for conclusion
Ask yourself
Did you understand the problem correctly
Do you understand the constraints applied
Do you understand all the potential or known challenges you will encounter
Do you have clear set of success criteria
Are we ready to share solution with stakeholder
Get second set of reviews before sharing your conclusions
Step-7: Communication of Problem-Solution
Create persuasive narratives
Communicate via compelling storytelling
Explain, why change is necessary
Organize thoughts
from summary to reasoning
start with governing thought - > state desired action - > include supporting argument with data
Frameworks for Crafting Frameworks
Argument Structure suggests
suggesting change is introduced first
causes with proof
solution with data
Grouping Structure suggests
add Recommendations to do x/y/z
add reasons
add data
Reveal Structure suggests
What to do when audience skeptical from beginning
Ask questions again and again until responses lead to conclusion
Points to Remember
Use whiteboards and sticky notes
Use props and demos
People love stories and visuals
People consumer information better with visuals
Visuals are needed for memorable content
let of quest for perfect response
flexibility and iteration are key
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