Faulty Images, Overconfident Mind

Cognitive coherence suggests that we place too much confidence in images in our brain even when the data might suggests otherwise.

Reference class forecasting suggests, using specific historical events known to one to make a decision in case we don't trust the sources of data that is countering the image we have in our mind related to any event.

One can also devise Long-term risk policy, that accounts for a backup solution, should an event unfolds in ways other than what we expect